Taking the protest vote away from the Lib-Dems

DO you remember, back in December, that there were some eyebrows raised when the Lib-Dems in Bexley asked the UAF to help with its campaign in the East Wickham by-election? It was a bit of a surprise because in the past it had always been Labour that had worked hand-in-hand with the 'anti-BNP' group run by the Socialist Workers Party.

I believed that I mentioned at the time that there was more to this than met the eye and it was not just about the Lib-Dems wanting to parade its anti-BNP credentials in order to pick up the immigrant vote.

This has come to mind again after a report on the Kent News website this morning - Lib-Dems organise anti-BNP rally. Now the Lib-Dems weren't even able to put a candidate up in Swanley, so it is a bit of a surprise that they feel able to organise a rally. It would have been something you would have expected from Labour with us having just taken its seat.

Now cast your mind back to last Thursday. No, I'm not thinking about the Sevenoaks by-election, but the contest in Thringstone. What was the real surprise about this result apart from the huge 28% vote for the BNP? It was the derisory vote for the Lib-Dem candidate - just 76 votes which amounted to 4.6% of the total vote. What makes this vote even worse is that it was down by a massive 20.3% from the Lib-Dem vote back in May 2007.

When at Steyning Grammar School back in the early 1960s, I joined the Young Liberals, and then when I was 18, the Liberal Party itself. I did so because I felt a 'plague on both your houses' attitude towards the class based Tory and Labour Parties. I was looking for a Third Way and the Liberal Party was all that was available . . . until the National Front came along.

I believe that there are many people out there who feel now, how I felt then. They vote Lib-Dem because they can't stand New Labour or the Conservatives and are showing their opposition to the two main parties - it is just a protest vote. In fact, I would venture to propose that nearly half of those who vote Lib-Dem have little idea what its policies are all about at a national level. Yes they like the community politics, but I'm pretty certain would shy away from any true 'liberal' agenda.

Today, with its shallow Cameron-like leader, the Lib-Dems has lost that edge that made it an alternative and the home of the protest vote. Now, for people who see through the media spin and are tired of the cosy relationship between the Old Gang parties, there is the chance to lodge a real protest vote, a vote that has the establishment quaking in its shoes, a vote for the dreaded British National Party.

That's why the Lib-Dems are in a tizz over the BNP because they see us taking the protest vote which has been theirs by default for the last 30 years. This is very important for us as the European Elections are all about our 'vote share'. If we can shave a percentage point or two off the Lib-Dem vote and put it on to ours it could mean the difference for a region between having a BNP Member of the European Parliament, or not.

My theory might be tested tomorrow in the Greasley by-election in Broxtowe. This is a safe Conservative seat with Labour as the main challengers. The BNP candidate polled 17% here last time and the Lib-Dem 10% which should already prove my theory but I'm hoping that there still might be a little more movement here despite the already low bottom-line of the Lib-Dem vote. The last minute intervention of a UKIP candidate might also skew the figures but it is worth checking out the percentages when the result comes in tomorrow evening.

Very good letter from Alistair Harper in The Scotsman this morning. Alistair has the knack of getting his letters published which is no mean feat with the anti-BNP stance of the media. You can read it here.

And finally thanks to Freedom's trusted Subscription Manager Colin Goodgroves, for this photograph of the Wingfield Castle taken at the marina in Hartlepool. I love anything like this and for many years have lobbied for family holidays to be taken 'barging' on a river or canal on the Norfolk Broads or in France, but I have always been out-voted 4-1. Hopefully with the chicks flying the nest at a rate of knots and hence the anti-barge holiday vote losing its majority, I might just get my wish in the not too distant future.

The end of the 'Nice' Party

My theory of what is behind the demise of the Liberal Democrats over the past 18 months is that it has had nothing to do with the leadership of Ming Campbell. I believe the reason that voters turned away from the Party, causing their poll ratings to nearly half from 22% to 12%, was because of the way that Charles Kennedy was treated when he was removed from the leadership.

Support for the Lib-Dems comes from many different strands. There is a hard of core of old-fashioned liberals who actually support liberal policies. There are those who vote for the Party because they don't support either of the other two parties. There's the protest vote of those who want to make their voice heard and see voting Lib-Dem as making that statement, and then there are the votes it attracts because people believe that it is the 'nice' party in the world of hard-nosed politics.

This was very much the case in Burnley where Labour and the BNP were fighting out a series of by-elections after the 2002 and 2003 local council elections. Labour were unpopular but still held the lion's share of the votes in these wards, the BNP were the challengers along with the Lib-Dems. Labour's campaign against the BNP was quite ferocious with as many as eight anti-BNP leaflets being distributed, and as Labour and the BNP slugged it out, the Lib-Dems picked up support from those people who were alienated by the intensity of the contest.

"The Lib-Dems are okay, they seem to care" one chap told me on the doorstep. He probably couldn't name one Lib-Dem policy but the Party's 'gentle and nice' facade had temporarily won him over.

But that image was undermined by the way Charles Kennedy was hounded out of office. People with a drink problem do seem to attract some public sympathy, probably because we have all over indulged at one time or another. Kennedy was quite a popular figure and to see him treated in such a way by people who were meant to be his colleagues left a bad taste in the mouth of anyone who had followed the saga on TV. In the eyes of many, after treating one of their own in such a manner, the Liberal Democrats were not the nice party any more.

And now it has happened all over again, this time with an old and respected politician. Who needs enemies with friends like Vince Cable, the Party's deputy leader. His interview on the World at One yesterday was the signal for the jackals to stop their circling of the prey and to go in for the kill. Within a matter of hours Ming was gone, so devastated by his treatment that he was unable to face the press.

Politics used to be about political parties with different policies. Now it's about political parties with the same policies. The only difference between Labour, the Tories and the Lib-Dems will be the media savvy and celebrity status of their leaders. That's why the Lib-Dems ditched Ming Campbell, because to compete they need someone more charismatic for the media.

And all the while, out of the spotlight, there's a silent revolution going on. There's not a day goes by without the British National Party recruiting another, ten, twenty or even fifty new members. On most Thursdays over the past two months, voters have been turning to the BNP in increasing numbers. As Britain's fourth political party, our current target is to become its third, and the continued exposure of the Liberal Democrats as being anything but a 'nice' party will help towards that end.

There's some news from the frontline in the council by-elections the BNP is contesting on Thursday. Wayne McDermott, who is involved in our campaign in South Derbyshire in Church Gresley ward, says he was disappointed that the United Kingdom Independence Party candidate had his nomination papers refused because of duplicated signatures.
" We were gutted they didn't stand because we would have thrashed them, and that would have increased the number of UKIP people now joining the BNP. I can't believe they didn't have a spare set of nomination papers. We had three sets ready just in case there might be a problem."

Wayne reports that the campaign is going well with the response on the doorstep very favourable. Labour have been out in force for the past two weeks and the battle looks to be for second place between the Tories and the BNP.

There was a mistake on yesterday's blog. The Waltham Abbey by-election is not this Thursday but next, 25th October 2007. Apologies for the error and I can quite honestly shift the blame to www.votewise.co.uk which is still showing the contest as taking place on the 18th.