Carlisle Update . . . 2.30pm

Half past two and just back from a good stint in Carlisle.

First thing this morning it was the delivery of our "good morning/it's a two horse race" leaflet to the confirmed BNP voters and to the possible BNP voters. Then, at ten o'clock, it was telling duty at the Silloth Street polling station.

My impression is that Alistair Barbour and Clive Jefferson have run an excellent campaign in Castle ward. It's meticulous in its planning and there is a full squad of campaigners in the city today to ensure that every last BNP voter gets to polls.

When I left, a team was just going out to hit the 200 postal voters who hadn't returned their ballot papers. Apparently if they take them to the polling station they will still be added to the count.

The Lib-Dems have cranked up their campaign over the last three days. A mail merge personal letter and a huge A3 Focus leaflet which was still being delivered this morning. Like ours it was saying that it's a two horse race and warning that the BNP was close on their coat tails. Now this is a change from an earlier leaflet of theirs which claims it was a two horse race between the Lib-Dems and Labour.

The BNP had tellers at all five polling station from 7.00am, the only other Party doing telling was the Lib-Dems but they weren't covering every one and were only doing selected times at the others.

We are by far the most organised party on polling day and I have no doubt that we will get ALL our voters out. Whether that will be enough to win remains to be seen, but I'm certain that the BNP vote will be over 20% and that we should take 2nd place from Labour.

I have just heard from Wayne McDermott, the East Midlands Elections officer and an expert elections number cruncher. He makes the valid point that in this current round of local council elections leading up to the Euro Elections we should be looking to secure another 50% of the vote over and above what we actually need at the Euro Poll. So in the North West we should be looking to gain a 12% vote share rather than 8% and in the West Midlands over 17% rather than 11.5%.

Freedom 103 went to the printers yesterday and work on issue No. 104 must start tomorrow. But this afternoon I have nearly 200 emails to respond to, so that's what I'm going to do now.