Who needs a Crunchie?

LATE yesterday afternoon things started to get back to normal and I was able to unwind, just a little, by continuing my investigation into the possible outcomes of the result of the North West Euro Constituency in June of next year.

All calculations have to be based on the turnout and vote share of the 2004 elections and, of course, from this there will be changes. In all probability the Tory vote will be going up and the Labour vote will be coming down and the Lib-Dem and Green votes will no doubt be staying roughly the same. But there will be one significant change to the 2004 voting pattern and that will be the collapse of the UKIP vote.

Now will this huge disappearance of a block vote for one of the parties that actually won a seat last time round benefit us or not?

Well, presumably the UKIP vote will go somewhere and the UKIP voters won't simply stay at home, so this is where the guesswork comes in. I'm predicting that UKIP will manage to keep 30% of its 2004 vote, that 60% will go back to the Tories and that 10% will find its way to us.

If this was the case then how would the votes stack up . . .

European Election
North West Constituency
June 2009
Conservative Party 663,742 (31.4%)
Labour Party 576,388 (27.3%)
Liberal Democrats 335,063 (15.8%)
British National Party 160,675 (7.6%)
Green Party 117,393 (5.6%)
UK Independence Party 77,148 (3.6%)
Other Parties - balance
Total votes: 2,115,163 (2004 Total Vote)

So what does this mean for the break down for winning seats . . .

European Election 2009 - North West - Seats:
1st seat - Con 31.4%
2nd seat - Lab 27.3%
3rd seat - Lib-Dem 15.8%
4th seat - Con 15.7%
5th seat - Lab 13.6%
6th seat - Con 10.5%
7th seat - Lab 9.1%
8th Seat - Lib-Dem 7.9%

It means that the British National Party will be just 0.3% from the final and eighth seat on offer and for Nick Griffin to take his seat in the European Parliament.

Now doesn't that give you the 'Friday feeling'!